2011 Update

It has been a long, cold winter for those of us in the nation's heartland. We hit 50 degrees in St. Louis today for the first time since New Years Eve. Along with the warm temperatures has come the inevitable melting of our persistant snowcover. The prospect of snowless ground (pretty depressing for me in February) with this week's impending warmup has me thinking about severe weather and storm chasing.
Unfortunately, I'm not going to be able to chase as much as I did last year. On January 22, my wife Jenn and I welcomed our first child, Jeffrey Jr. Along with being a first time parent, I have a different work schedule this year. I am back to the daily grind instead of working 3 days a week. I am also taking classes full-time this semester and can't chase on Tuesdays or Thursdays because of school.
Despite my ever increasing responsibilities, I plan on finding some time to chase. I get off from work at 3:30, so an after-work chase or two is possible as long as the target is within a couple hours drive. Weekend chases are another possibility. I highly doubt I'll be able to go on any multi-day chases this spring like Chris and I did last year.

Now that the depressing part of the entry is over its on to the good news. I expect that this will be an active spring for severe weather. Climatologically speaking, La Nina years are more favorable for severe weather outbreaks than are El Nino or Neutral years. We have had an active storm track all winter long, and storms cutting through the plains have had no problem drawing Gulf moisture north. One typical trait of La Nina winters is the presence of a ridge over the southeast. This ridge has been noticably absent for most of the winter. This ridge keeps the southeast warmer than normal and also allows moisture to work northward into the US around the west side of the surface high. This ridge should return to the southeast as we head toward the warmer months.
An interesting forecasting technique that I've been introduced to this year is the LRC, which stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle. The basic premise of the technique is that a unique weather pattern sets up every fall. It is repeated throughout the winter and through the following year until a new cycle forms again in the fall. In this year's cycle, there have been three "signature storms," October 26, December 11-12, and February 1-2. Based on the LRC, we are due to see another signature storm around the fourth week of March and again around the second week of May. These two time periods could potentially be active for severe weather in and around the southern Plains and Midwest.
Anyone in and around St. Louis will certainly remember the tornado outbreak on New Year's Eve. I was working, but was able to take an impromptu chase down the road. With only my cell phone to guide me, I made my way to a position on the south side of Manchester Rd. in Ellisville, MO. I had a pretty unorganized funnel cloud pass over my head. It touched down in Ballwin about a mile and a half ENE of my location. It was only an EF1 tornado and did minimal damage, especially compared to the EF3 tornado that went from Fenton to Sunset Hills. According to the LRC, the system that led to these tornados should re-appear in about a week or so. This may be the first chance to chase for many people (assuming a storm forms). Unfortunately for my chase prospects, my family will be in town from NC next weekend, thus preventing me from chasing. However, if Chris doesn't have drill, and it looks like a decent setup, I'm sure I can talk him into chasing.
Chris and I have made a few upgrades to our equipment for this season. I will now have an entire chase season with my HD video camera, and Chris purchased a high quality digital camera. We also have a wi-fi hotspot for the car this year and a windshield camera mount. We will have a better internet connection and a good way to take video when we're speeding after a storm. If we are able to chase, we should have many opportunities to use the new equipment. The prospects for an active year are good.