Chase Update

For a while it looked like I was going to chase this weekend. However, as the models continuted to crank out data, the data became less and less favorable for a chase. If this event were closer to home, or earlier in the season, I might go. I don't doubt that there will be a tornado or two somewhere in the vicinity of central NE, but, there are just too many downsides to the chase. While the atmosphere will be strongly unstable, and very weakly capped, there may not be enough forcing for storms to form. It is a ten hour drive to the target area for a very uncertain convective situation. At this point, I would rather wait for a more favorable system to chase. There will be more tornados this year and at least a few more chases. One of them will not be this weekend however.

Chase Prospects

I am getting antsy to get out on the road and chase again. I have high hopes that I will be able to chase during the upcoming weekend. Models have been consistent in showing a large upper low moving into the plains. The details are almost impossible to resolve at this juncture, but based on pattern recognition I would say a chase is eminently possible in the Sat./Sun. timeframe. Some models, namely the 12Z GFS from this morning are suggesting that this system could come in a little further north than the previous few. Severe weather climatology does favor the severe threat moving a little further north this time of year. I kind of hope to be able to head to the KS/NE area this time around instead of the OK/TX area. So far this year, all roads have lead through Arkansas on the way home. Although parts of the state are beautiful, I'm getting sick of seeing it. Here's to hoping I will be chasing central NE next weekend.

5/12/10 Chase

I (Jeff) was unable to chase today due to the real world requirement of procuring actual income via the employer, employee relationship. However, Chris decided to head out to Kansas with our friend Mike Baker. I should have a write-up of their chase as well as a few pictures posted within a few days.

I am off tomorrow, and tomorrow is a potential chase day. I have other business to attend to though and most likely will not be able to chase. If something intriguing pops up here in the St. Louis area I may decide to give chase for a while. Low-level shear does not look all that impressive for tomorrow though so I'm not sure how good our tornado threat is going to be.

5/10/10 Chase Video Available on Youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftu8wxTwY6M



Check out UndertheMeso's youtube channel for HD chase video!

5/10/10 Chase Recap Update

Apparently we missed a 1.4 mile wide tornado from our storm. It was on the ground while we were driving north to find a good route across the Arkansas River. By the time we caught up with the storm, which was moving at 60 mph, this tornado had long since lifted.

Here is the NWS WFO Tulsa's survey information for the storm:

A SURVEY TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA CONFIRMEDTHAT A TORNADO OCCURRED IN WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY ON THE EVENING OF10 MAY 2010.THE TORNADO LIKELY ENTERED OSAGE COUNTY FROM NOBLE COUNTY. THISWILL BE CONFIRMED THROUGH COORDINATION BETWEEN THE NORMAN ANDTULSA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.TORNADO DAMAGE BEGAN IN OSAGE COUNTY AT APPROXIMATELY 514 PM CDT12.3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURBANK. THE TORNADO TRAVELED TO THE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 60 MPH AND WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 11 MILES...LIFTING 3.1 MILES SOUTH OF BURBANK.THE TORNADO WAS 1.4 MILES WIDE AND WAS PART OF A 2.6 MILE WIDEDAMAGE SWATH. THE LARGER DAMAGE SWATH IS A COMBINATION OFTORNADO DAMAGE AND STRONG REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT WINDS THE REACHEDNEAR 85 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE TORNADO WAS GIVEN A PRELIMINARYRATING OF EF-1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE PEAK WINDS OF THETORNADO WERE ESTIMATED NEAR 110 MPH.THE TORNADO SIGNIFICANTLY DAMAGED TWO HOMES... ALONG WITH SEVERALBARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS. THE TORNADO LIFTED AROUND 525 PM.SUMMARYBURBANK TORNADO10 MAY 2010514 PM TO 525 PM CDTRATING EF-1PEAK WINDS NEAR 110 MPHPATH LENGTH 11 MILESMAX PATH WIDTH 1.4 MILESTHIS TORNADO LIKELY ENTERED OSAGE COUNTY FROM NOBLE COUNTY.

5/10/10 Chase Recap

Yesterday we had a successful, frustrating, exhilarating, and stressful chase. We got a later start than we wanted in the morning, so by the time we reached our target area, storms had already fired and even gone tornadic to our north. Since my original thought was to play the KS/OK border, I do have to say that a very impressive storm dropped a string of tornados and softball sized hail along the border on the OK side. We were too late to intercept this northern cell. Since I was torn between Ponca City and Stillwater as a target, we decided to split the difference and set up right between the two. We stopped two miles east of I-35 along Hwy. 77 just north of Hwy. 15 near the small town of Ceres. At the time, we were watching a cell develop on radar. It originally initiated along the dryline just north of Clinton, OK. It continued to develop and move northeast towards Enid. Even before the cell was developed, we decided that it was going to be our target. As the cell neared Enid it took and right turn and became tornado warned. We were perfectly positioned to intercept. As the storm approached, we realized a we needed to reposition a couple miles south to get out of harm's way. We ultimately set-up about a mile south of Hwy 15 and had a perfect visual of the storm's mesocyclone as it moved east. As the storm approached we experienced some very strong inflow winds. I estimate we had gusts in the 60 mph range. The backs of my legs got sandblasted as I shot video towards the WNW. I shot quite a bit of HD video of the storm as it continually rotated and kept forming small wall clouds and funnels. I will be bringing you some video clips in the next few days. I could not tell if any of the funnels reached the ground. I was not able to see any debris clouds but the NWS storm surveys being conducted will show if any of these funnels touched down. As the storm moved ENE of our position it did drop at least one confirmed tornado just to the north of the town of Red Rock. At this time, we were following behind the storm along Hwy 15. We stopped along the side of the road near Red Rock and saw one quick tornado very briefly touch down and dissipate a few hundred yards to our north. From our vantage point we were not able to see the main tornado but we saw evidence of it's existance as we turned north on Hwy 177 to catch back up to the storm. A small indian casino had sustained minor damage and a power pole had been snapped off. By this point, the storm was racing off to the east and we were faced with a serious lack of road options. Our only option was to blast north to Ponca City and try to catch up to the storm along Hwy 60 moving through the Osage Indian Reservation. We caught back up to the back edge of the storm near Burbank and continued to follow it to the east. I was not able to shoot any good video as we were moving at 60 mph and the storm was mostly rain-wrapped. I will be interested to see what the storm survey shows from this storm because it appeared to drop multiple short-lived tornados as it quickly moved east. At one point as we crested a hill, we were able to see dual tornados to our east. They disappeared however as we descended into another valley and a rain curtain wrapped around behind them. After that, we made the decision to core punch the storm to attempt to get out ahead of it. There was a small area of rotation on radar to our south and another to our north. I figured there would be blinding rain but no hail and that it was safe to proceed. We safely navigated through the storm and followed it for a few more miles. We followed the storm as far east as Pawhuska at which point we made the decision to peel off from the cell as it appeared to be weakening.
At that point, we were captivated by the cell that produced the deadly tornado near Oklahoma City. It continued to have a large tornado reported on the ground as it raced eastward paralleling I-40. Even though it was a long-shot to catch the storm, we made the decision to head southeast to try to intercept the storm as it passed south of Muskogee. As we travelled down the Muskogee Turnpike, southeast of Tulsa, it became evident that we were not going to be able to get ahead of the storm. Once again, we would have to core punch the storm. Had we continued on at the same pace, we would have driven straight into the tornado as we neared I-40. Thanks to some skillful radar and map work on my behalf, we stopped along the road couple miles north of the tornadic circulation. We experienced blinding rain and some pea sized hail but were no worse for the wear. After I was confident that the circulation was a couple miles to our east, we continued south and actually drove through the western edge of the hook echo. By the time we reached I-40 we were out of the precipitation along its flanking line and were able to parallel the storm to the east. Due to bad terrain, waning light, and a serious lack of road options, we were unable to get close to the storm. We continued to parallel the storm as it moved off to the east about 10-15 miles north of us. We decided that we would make one more play for an intercept just across the Arkansas line north of Ft. Smith. At this point, the storm had moved into a much less favorable enivronment and over very rough, mountainous terrain. We figured it was our last chance to see anything and that the storm would quickly weaken. We set up shop along I-540 south of the small town of Chester. We were able to see a nice lightning illuminated wall cloud but nothing more. After we waited a few more minutes for the trailing precipitation to move east, we decided to call it a day. We headed north on I-540 through the Fayetteville, AR area, picked up I-44 in Joplin, and headed back to St. Louis, arriving home a little after 4:00 am.
The frustrating point was that due to very fast 50-60 mph storm motions and a lack of good road options, especially on the Osage Indian Reservation and in eastern OK, it was very hard to get back in good position once the storms had passed us. We were caught on the tail end of the storms and unable to get an unobstructed view of the tornados. We were able to see a couple tornados, but unable to set up shop in order to get good pictures and video. It was also frustrating that, while our storm was tornadic, we missed the devastating Norman, OK tornado.
The stressful part was taking gambles on the storms. We made some gutsy calls and maneuvers. While they didn't completely pay off, they were successful and we stayed safe in the midst of potentially dangerous situatons. It took an immense amount of concentration and a pinpoint knowledge of location to keep us out of danger.
Given all of our experiences, it was a successful chase. We saw a couple tornados, at least, and were able to avoid danger. I was also able to get some very good video with my new camera. It was the kind of chase that draws you back for more. We experienced a little bit of Great Plains magic and are ready to go experience more.

5/10/10 Chase Update

Everything is coming into place quite nicely. A look at the latest visible satellite image shows that low clouds have completely cleared out of the western half of OK. There is a deck of altocumulus clouds over central OK which is indicative of conditional instability that will be realized as the boundary layer continues to heat.We just entered the northeast corner of OK on the Will Rogers Turnpike. We should be in place to intercept the storms by 4pm.

The Chase is Underway!

After a night spent hard at work, Chris and I are finally on the road! Despite frustrating traffic on the back roads of Jefferson County headed out to 44, the day has gotten off to a good start. While headed towards HWY 30 on HWY B we were able to see some rather impressive tornado damage from the 4/30 tornado in Jefferson County. Even though the damage was only rated EF-1 its still pretty impressive to see a roof ripped off a structure and very large trees uprooted. I believe that this is an omen of things to come today.

5/10/10 Forecast Update IV

The chase is almost upon us! Once again, for the second time in a row before a major chase, I am staying up all night. I don't necessarily do it on purpose, but it just kind of happens. Tonight I am working on revising my research paper which is due tomorrow for my English class. Yes, I am back in school for those of you wondering. This is actually the first time in my college career that I have actually written a research paper. I usually blow them off and don't write them. That explains pretty well why I have been frequently in and out of school. This time I am applying myself and it is my first all-nighter actually doing school work (this blogging session nevertheless). Anyways, back to the important stuff. Once again, the models have come in looking mighty impressive for tomorrow. It is the kind of setup that gets entire towns wiped off the map. I am still planning on Ponca City as the target, but I may shift that an hour or so south to Stillwater. Basically anywhere in OK east of I-35 and north of I-40 looks good tomorrow, extending up into the southeast portion of KS. There are numerous sizeable towns in the area that looks to take a beating tomorrow. First and foremost is Tulsa. If I were a resident of Tulsa I would watch the sky very carefully tomorrow, listen attentively to my weather radio, watch local media, and be prepared to take shelter. I was able to scrape together a few medical supplies to take with me on the chase tomorrow. God willing, I won't need any of it, but the atmosphere certainly looks primed to wreak havoc. If we are on a storm that devastates a populated area, I plan on stopping to help and documenting the tragedy on camera. Like I said before, God willing, I won't be in that situation, but the last time we had a setup this good, Yazoo City, MS was almost completely destroyed. On a brighter note, while looking for a highliter tonight, I found the battery charger to my old SD Camcorder. I will be able to shoot with multiple video cameras tomorrow. I am really looking forward to seeing how the new HD Camcorder performs. I pray that I am afforded the opportunity to get some amazing footage tomorrow, and that God will spare the lives of the people in the paths of the tornados tomorrow.

5/10/10 Forecast Update III

After analyzing the new 12z model guidance this morning I've got a new target. Looks like Ponca City, OK is the new play. It is roughly 70 miles ENE of Enid. The first storms of the day should go up in KS somewhere along I-135, but I'm still going to play south a little bit. Storms should continue to fire south along the I-35 corridor or slightly west throughout the late afternoon and evening. My feeling is that the greatest severe threat is going to be right along the KS/OK border. Ponca City puts us about 20 miles south of the border so we should be in perfect position to intercept. CAPE and shear values are more than sufficient in this area for long-lasting supercells.

5/10/10 Forecast Update II

I stayed up to wait for the SPC's new Day 2 Outlook. As I correctly presumed, the target area has been upgraded to a moderate risk. After looking at some of the 00z guidance I am going to go out on a limb here. The first, and possibly most significant storm of the day will form along the dryline in southern Woods County, OK. It should become tornadic as it moves off the EML and becomes rooted in the deep boundary layer moisture. I know this is a stretch this far out and that storm initiation is a meso and microscale process that is difficult to forecast well in advance, but I just have a hunch. Lets hope it proves correct.

5/10/10 Chase Forecast Notes

Monday 5/10 appears to be a very favorable chase day. Chris and I are planning to head to Oklahoma first thing in the morning. We have been carefully watching the models for a few days now. My thoughts:
The new 00z NAM is now out. It has maintained a slower system like it showed in the earlier 12z run. All eyes are now turned to the 00z GFS which is expected out within the next hour. The 12z GFS and it's previous 00z run showed a faster system which would place our chase target further east. Although it had support from the SPC's SREF model, I don't buy this solution for a number of reasons, mainly climatological.
Earlier today I was reading up on dryline climatology. This time of the year, the mean dryline location is near 101W. No matter which model verifies, the dryline is going to be further east than it's favored location, but I highly doubt it gets as far east as the GFS has suggested. Right now, my favored dryline position is from near Pratt, KS south to Elk City, OK and continuing south from there.
Earlier today, I set Enid, OK as my preliminary target. After looking at the 00z NAM it still looks good to me. It will be in a favorable area east of the dryline where the convective inhibition should be minimized come late afternoon.
This is one of the most dynamic systems I have seen in quite a while. Forecast soudings for most of northern OK look optimal for supercells with possibly violent tornados. Deep layer and low-level shear is very impressive, which, coupled with moderate instability is a recipe for disaster. This is the kind of system in which we see a town wiped off the map.

Greetings

Hello everyone, my name is Jeff Deason. This blog is dedicated to the storm chasing of myself and Chris Brown. We are friends and storm chasers chasing out of the St. Louis, MO area. We will use this blog to provide forecasting updates and chase logs, as well as photos and videos of severe weather.
Severe weather, especially tornados, and storm chasing is my passion. I have had an intense interest in tornados since I experienced an F0 tornado in my hometown of Chesapeake, VA when I was 11 years old. I have some formal meteorology training from the University of Missouri-Columbia, but the majority of my knowledge is self-taught. I am the only person that I know who reads case studies of severe weather for fun.
On the days preceding a chase, I spend hours poring over data. I enjoy looking at forecast soundings until my eyes bleed. I do all my own forecasting. I use the SPC and the local NWS WFO convective outlooks and forecast discussions as a reference but do not take them as gospel. One of the most enjoyable aspects of chasing for me, is reaping the rewards of a good forecast when staring at a large wedge tornado.

Thats all for now. Hope you all enjoy it.