Monday 5/10 appears to be a very favorable chase day. Chris and I are planning to head to Oklahoma first thing in the morning. We have been carefully watching the models for a few days now. My thoughts:
The new 00z NAM is now out. It has maintained a slower system like it showed in the earlier 12z run. All eyes are now turned to the 00z GFS which is expected out within the next hour. The 12z GFS and it's previous 00z run showed a faster system which would place our chase target further east. Although it had support from the SPC's SREF model, I don't buy this solution for a number of reasons, mainly climatological.
Earlier today I was reading up on dryline climatology. This time of the year, the mean dryline location is near 101W. No matter which model verifies, the dryline is going to be further east than it's favored location, but I highly doubt it gets as far east as the GFS has suggested. Right now, my favored dryline position is from near Pratt, KS south to Elk City, OK and continuing south from there.
Earlier today, I set Enid, OK as my preliminary target. After looking at the 00z NAM it still looks good to me. It will be in a favorable area east of the dryline where the convective inhibition should be minimized come late afternoon.
This is one of the most dynamic systems I have seen in quite a while. Forecast soudings for most of northern OK look optimal for supercells with possibly violent tornados. Deep layer and low-level shear is very impressive, which, coupled with moderate instability is a recipe for disaster. This is the kind of system in which we see a town wiped off the map.
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