5/10/10 Forecast Update II

I stayed up to wait for the SPC's new Day 2 Outlook. As I correctly presumed, the target area has been upgraded to a moderate risk. After looking at some of the 00z guidance I am going to go out on a limb here. The first, and possibly most significant storm of the day will form along the dryline in southern Woods County, OK. It should become tornadic as it moves off the EML and becomes rooted in the deep boundary layer moisture. I know this is a stretch this far out and that storm initiation is a meso and microscale process that is difficult to forecast well in advance, but I just have a hunch. Lets hope it proves correct.