5/10/10 Forecast Update III

After analyzing the new 12z model guidance this morning I've got a new target. Looks like Ponca City, OK is the new play. It is roughly 70 miles ENE of Enid. The first storms of the day should go up in KS somewhere along I-135, but I'm still going to play south a little bit. Storms should continue to fire south along the I-35 corridor or slightly west throughout the late afternoon and evening. My feeling is that the greatest severe threat is going to be right along the KS/OK border. Ponca City puts us about 20 miles south of the border so we should be in perfect position to intercept. CAPE and shear values are more than sufficient in this area for long-lasting supercells.